Boycott Watch  
Thanksgiving Day - Thursday, November 27, 2008
Economic Talking Points:
Boycott Watch Prediction: Black Friday will be better than analysts' fears.
    For the past few weeks, many economists have been predicting a slower than normal Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when retailers make their money for the year. Today, Thanksgiving Day, Boycott Watch predicts that Black Friday retail sales will match, and even beat last year's sales, indicating the U.S. economy is better than many people think.

    The reason is simple - supermarkets are packed with last minute Thanksgiving shoppers, tips in donut shops are up today as they prepare for the usually high sales on Black Friday, and newspapers are filled with more ads than usual. The Cleveland Plain Dealer, for example, distributed newspapers with the massive ad section to non-subscribers, indicating retailers are gearing up for a massive sales volume.

    This means people may not be buying big ticket items, such as new cars which require credit because they fear not being able to pay bills, but they are buying small ticket retail items. Banks may still be laying people off, but only because loans are down and that's where they make their money. The overall indication is, therefore, people are spending cash on hand and using some of their credit card lines, but not buying big ticket items. The start of the Christmas shopping season may indicate that a second round of Washington bailouts may simply not be necessary.

    Companies such as General Motors and Amtrust Bank may be able to shore up their bottom lines by tightening their belts, which both companies are already doing. If that works, Boycott Watch's previous predictions that consumer fear is the problem will be proven right, and that the recovery has already begun will be proven right.

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